Recession Calls for Vision, Not Resignation, on Immigration Policy
Published December 21, 2008 @ 10:43PM PT
I keep my eyes on the Economist's immigration coverage with two things in mind. First, its editorial position on international migration is frequently sensible. Second, its coverage of American politics routinely adheres to the worst kind of Joe Klein/Tom Friedman warmed-up pseudo-centrist conventional wisdom. (That is to say, it's usually wrong.)
So what does the Economist have to say this week?
Ever since 2002, when America began to recover from a mild economic downturn, migrants both legal and illegal have streamed over the border. By 2006 Americans rated immigration as the nation's second-most-important problem after the Iraq war, according to Gallup. A bold attempt to reform immigration laws the following year was scuppered by an extraordinary outburst of popular anger. Yet, almost at that moment, the problem began to go away.
This "extraordinary outburst of popular anger" turned out to be illusory (immigration has nearly fallen off the list of issues of concern to Americans) and largely fueled by William Gheen's 80-year-old-internet fighter pilots-not a movement that has a bright future.
Jeffrey Passel, a demographer at the Pew Hispanic Centre, estimates that the number of illegal immigrants in America fell by 500,000 between 2007 and 2008. Some left the country; others worked their way to legitimacy. Few were replaced. For the past three years, Mr Passel reckons, there has been more legal than illegal immigration-a reversal of the previous pattern. And even legal immigration may now be falling.
Gabriel Jack, a Silicon Valley immigration lawyer, says companies are requesting fewer visas for foreign workers, although demand for the most popular permits still outstrips supply. Tourism and business travel seem to have declined, too. Fewer people are flying into and out of America than at this point last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Companies have fewer positions to offer anyone, foreign nationals included. And the extraordinarily cumbersome visa regulations imposed on businesses by the Department of Labor and USCIS have had the desired effect-businesses now decide it's just not worth the trouble. Tourists would rather spend their money elsewhere than face consistent harassment by consular officials and airport security.
All of this changes the politics of immigration.
During the presidential campaign Mr Obama promised to tackle immigration reform in his first year in office. He has a sound reason for keeping that promise: Latinos are solidly Democratic. Exit polls for CNN suggest that Mr Obama carried Hispanic voters by 28 points in Texas, 51 points in California and 54 points in Nevada. By 2012 the Hispanic electorate will be bigger and the heavily Latino Western states will command a few more electoral-college votes, thanks to the 2010 census, which will give extra congressional seats to the West.
The abrupt slowdown in human movement might seem to improve the odds that America's broken immigration system will be overhauled soon. What do nativists have to fear, if fewer people are trampling the border and some undocumented workers are going home?
Greg Siskind has put forward a version of this argument. But the Economist disagrees.
In fact, though, immigration reform is becoming harder.
The immigration bill that died in 2007 would have legalised undocumented workers, stepped up enforcement of existing laws and increased the supply of immigrant workers. It was a compromise that offered something to liberals, Hispanics, conservatives and businessmen.
The recession has swept away the third part of the grand bargain. Even 18 months ago some Midwestern Democrats (including Mr Obama) were wary of a guest-worker programme. It will be extremely hard to sell an increase in foreign workers during a recession. Doris Meissner of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington notes that the last two major relaxations of immigration laws, in 1965 and 1990, both occurred at times of low unemployment.
(With friends like this . . .)
If there is to be no grand bargain, lesser steps may be taken. Farmers, who have political clout and a perpetual hunger for cheap labour, may be allowed to hire more seasonal workers. "Americans still aren't rushing to pick lettuces in 115º heat," notes Glenn Hamer, president of Arizona's chamber of commerce. The DREAM Act, which would enable some illegal aliens who were brought to America as children to become residents, may be revived.
The Economist then hazards a vague prediction that "the dynamism of the world economy" will revive the immigration issue once again, so don't rest easy for too long.
Here's what I think. The Economist may not care much about things like maintaining families intact, preventing deaths in detention, discouraging racial profiling, protecting unaccompanied migrant children, or offering refuge to legitimate asylum-seekers, but Barack Obama sure better. If he wants to maintain the respect of the Latin@ community and young voters, if he wants to bring the U.S. into compliance with international human rights norms, if he wants to mitigate this country's international pariah status, he would do better not to listen to naysayers at establishmentarian magazines and centrist think tanks.
This is a time for bold moves. The immigration debate is sufficiently polarized that any fence-sitters will be ripped to shreds by both pro and antis. It's time for Obama to consider carefully who he prefers to listen to: people like his new Labor Secretary Hilda Solis or William Gheen's internet fighter pilots.
[Image: Economist/Getty]
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David is an attorney in Philadelphia, PA, where he helps immigrants to the U.S. navigate the complex immigration legal system. Views he expresses at change.org are his alone and don't represent the views or opinions of his employer, Nationalities Service Center. The information contained on this site is intended for educational and advocacy purposes only.
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Great article.
<br>
I hope Hilda Solis abandons her ideas from the Strive Act which would have flooded the job market with 500,000 legal H-1B workers from abroad, mostly Asia. This would have devastated the U.S. job market and nailed the coffin of the economy shut.<br>
She seems to care about workers so perhaps she will be an advocate for shutting down the H-1B job killer program.
Posted by Carolyn Manis on 12/22/2008 @ 05:09AM PT
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I am so not against immigration, nor even illegal immigration, people flock here from around the world simply because it's the greatest country on earth & they all want a better life.I think there are 2 major problems that tend to get drowned out when this issue is raised:First & foremost, the majority of the hysteria is race-based; nobody ever screams about the fact that England owns the great majority of this country's business (ie:money), but all the screaming is about Mexican & Chinese immigration. Pure Racism! Secondly, it is a fact that ILLEGAL immigration is a Security hazard! With such porous borders, there is nothing to stop AlQueda operatives, or any terrorist group for that matter, from entering without us even knowing, which allows for the nightmare of "dirty bombs" etc.It won't be some poor mexican immigrant either, it will be organized, using the routes of mexican immigrants.So something must be done to protect our homeland.
Thirdly, illegal immigrants wouldn't be flocking here if they knew they couldn't get work, and it is American's who are hiring them over Legal immigrants BECAUSE IT'S CHEAPER!! It's not slave labor, however, it is wrong & until something is done on that front, the demand will stay strong.This recession is proving to be a boon in one sense, that apparently Legal workers are now pushing out Illegal workers for the same jobs! It seems Americans are willing to do the "dirty work" after all when times are tough!!
Posted by C O on 12/22/2008 @ 06:11AM PT
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Employers should not get away with undercuttung hard-fought-for wages!Every illegal immigrant I ever met or worked with, worked their asses off & deserved every penny they made.
Posted by C O on 12/22/2008 @ 06:37AM PT
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Is there a reason that they cant come in legally ? For My Information .
Posted by Robert Alarie on 12/22/2008 @ 11:40AM PT
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For Robert:
http://www.citizenorange.com/orange/2008/09/reasonorg-shows-wait-times-for.html
http://www.citizenorange.com/orange/2008/03/there-is-no-line.html
And for historical context: http://immigration.change.org/blog/view/the_myth_of_the_legal_immigrant_ancestor
Posted by Dave Bennion on 12/22/2008 @ 08:15PM PT
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Dave, I do understand that. But legitimately its obvious we cant allow everyone migrate here would you say ? So we do have a problem but what is the solution you offer?
Posted by Robert Alarie on 12/22/2008 @ 10:17PM PT
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"I hope Hilda Solis abandons her ideas from the Strive Act which would have flooded the job market with 500,000 legal H-1B workers from abroad, mostly Asia. This would have devastated the U.S. job market and nailed the coffin of the economy shut.<br>
She seems to care about workers so perhaps she will be an advocate for shutting down the H-1B job killer program."
Delusional thinking which suggests that less foreign workers mean more jobs for Americans. Hilda Solis better not abandon her ideas from the Strive Act or legal H-1B workers from abroad, mostly Asia if she does not want more jobs moving abroad. This would devastate the U.S. job market and nail the coffin of the economy shut. She seems to care about workers so perhaps she will be an advocate for increasing the H-1B job creation program and keep jobs in this country insteade of jobs flooding to India and China and unemploying more Americans! If she does not by 2010 the US computer programmer will be an extinct species as extinct as the Massachussetts GOP or Wyoming Democrat!
Posted by George Chell on 12/23/2008 @ 04:31AM PT
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Bring supply of visas in line with demand by employers, legalize undocumented workers here now to give them the legal protections they need to push back against exploitative employers. Stop violating human rights of workers. It makes little sense in a globalizing world to be steadily cranking up restrictions on immigration. This doesn't contemplate "allowing everyone to migrate here" but it would bring policy more into line with reality.
Posted by Dave Bennion on 12/23/2008 @ 05:09AM PT
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We still have plenty of oppurtunity in this country for immigration. We usually have a growing economy at worst, booming economy more often. The rascism charge is bull, they are the same race and religion (christian mostly) as the majority. I have second gen. mexican friends and you would have to ask them to know their nationality. I know that makes me sound like a rascist, but honestly I am just answering that rediculous charge! I do think we should make it far easier for these people to become citizens or document people who do not want to be citizens with a legal visiting workers' visa. All these people should be payed fair wage, both for their own sake, and to make them not unfairly competitive with citizens already here. This year when not enough migrants were available, both migrants and natives made 15.00 hr picking apples! I have talked to plenty of people on both the left and right and their main concern with borders is national security! They keep saying it, and they keep getting called rascist!
Posted by Charlie Reed on 12/23/2008 @ 05:10AM PT
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David,
How do you feel about the current U.S. Department of Labor STRATEGIC PLAN Fiscal Years 2006-2011?
(pg. 35) states:
"... H-1B workers may be hired even when a qualified U.S. worker wants the job, and a U.S. worker can be displaced from the job in favor of the foreign worker."
Do you think that it is fair that someone should have to dig their own grave by training an H-1B foreign worker who has been hired at half the salary to replace them? Current DOL law says it's OK.
http://www.dol.gov/_sec/stratplan/strat_plan_2006-2011.pdf
Posted by Carolyn Manis on 12/23/2008 @ 05:21AM PT
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If a foreign worker can do the job better, why not let the employer hire him/her? It is called meritocracy, but it seems to go out the window as soon as nationality comes into the picture. That kind of protectionism is one reason our national auto industry has failed to be competitive in recent years and finds itself where it is today. I think the DOL has been in hock to restrictionists for the last few years--hopefully looking forward to some changes there under Solis.
Posted by Dave Bennion on 12/23/2008 @ 05:33AM PT
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What if they cannot do the job better, but only cheaper, as in the case of Pfizer?
Do you have any problem with foreign governments specifically disallowing U.S. citizens from working in their countries?
Is this fair to U.S. citizens, including hispanic U.S. citizens in your opinion?
Posted by Carolyn Manis on 12/23/2008 @ 05:45AM PT
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Wait one minute, you just said that if a foreign worker can a job better, we should let them hire him. My question how many illegals immigrants are here already, how many are working ? If we dont know, do you think we must ?
Posted by Robert Alarie on 12/23/2008 @ 09:13AM PT
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Seeing as though we are refering to the mexican immigration issue, what role should and does the mexican goverment need to play in this?
Posted by Robert Alarie on 12/23/2008 @ 09:19AM PT
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Since America doesn't practice "meritocracy", but "affirmative action", how do you suggest we compromise?
Posted by Martina Herrera on 01/04/2009 @ 08:30AM PT
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It seems that we are all looking at "different parts of the elephant",so it would make sense to compile credible statistics, gathered by an independent group of analysts (perhaps the UN?)of exactly the numbers regarding immigration,and logical impacts to American society those numbers suggest. All parties to this issue like to quote their own sources, none of which seem credibly accurate. But we do agree there is an elephant in our living room.
"Open Borders" doesn't make any more sense than "open doors", which few people of any status here are currently willing to practice.
Posted by Martina Herrera on 01/04/2009 @ 08:50AM PT
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Some see this as a global 'Human Rights' issue (which isn't necessarily inaccurate), for others is a matter of semantics (what does it mean to be "an American"?). Yet more want to argue about the economics of it all. And everyone wants to put themselves and their own families first, including you Dave. Otherwise, an equally qualified foreign national would be doing your job for less or even free.
Posted by Martina Herrera on 01/04/2009 @ 09:03AM PT
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Closing the thread.
Posted by Dave Bennion on 01/04/2009 @ 11:25AM PT
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